info@businessghana.com
Data Bank says it expects the prices of Ghana’s major export commodities, Gold and cocoa, to show a strong performance this year.
A research conducted by the Bank said the projected strong performance would be driven by geopolitical tensions, potential US Fed interest rate cuts, and supply shortfalls.
According to the research, gold prices might reach US$2,600-US$3,100, while cocoa prices could rise between US$7,000 and US$9,600.
“We expect gold prices to trade higher in 2025, ranging from US$2,600-US$3,100 on the prolonged effect of geopolitical tension. We are optimistic about a recovery in gold prices throughout 2025 as geopolitical uncertainties
are likely to drive safe-haven demand,” it said.
“Additionally, we foresee further interest rate cuts by the US Fed in 2025, could drive gold prices high, potentially reaching between US$2,600 and US$3,100 per ounce following the January 2025 FOMC meeting.”
The research underlined that, “Given the positive outlook for gold prices, we believe local investors in Ghana could diversify their portfolios by considering the New Gold ETF and the Bank of Ghana’s Ghana Gold Coin (GGC). We believe these assets provide an opportunity to benefit from rising global gold prices while serving as a hedge against local currency depreciation.”
The expected rise in cocoa price, the research said would be due to a significant supply constraint from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which were slowly recovering from adverse weather with illegal gold mining in Ghana affecting some cocoa farms.
“We asset that the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), effective in early 2025, will further restrict supply availability, likely keeping prices elevated amid strong global demand for chocolate,” it said.
The research also projected Brent crude oil prices to trade below US$76 per barrel in 2025
This will be influenced by high US inventories and a shift towards cleaner energy.
“Our outlook remains cautious as major consumers, such as China and North America, face economic challenges alongside increasing demand for sustainable energy sources. Consequently, global oil demand growth is projected to decline from 1.74 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.64 million bpd in 2025”. This it said would reflect a broader trend of slowing consumption amid economic uncertainties and a transition to alternative energy.
