Heads of state from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which had earlier discussed the possibility of military intervention as a last resort. had to back down from that threat.

Amidst uncertainties as to what holds in the future, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who ousted the democratically elected President of that country, Mohamed Bazoum, seems to be encouraged by 
the success of fellow coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.

Much as he is turning away regional and international blocs from meeting him to discuss any issues related to the coup and the need to reinstate Mr Bazoum to power, he is being extremely cautious by avoiding public gatherings.

For instance, he was not at the huge rally the junta organised in Niger's capital Niamey last Sunday. Reports monitored across all media say he has only appeared on TV on three occasions since the coup and has spoken twice — once to present himself as Niger's new leader and once to make an Independence Day address.

To some, the General does not even know where the crisis is going next. But his junta has announced the appointment of a prime minister, former Finance Minister and African Development Bank official Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeini — signalling its ambitions to establish a prolonged political transition.

The move is obviously strategic because the Prime Minister is a known civilian who is likely to be embraced by the regional bloc and signal that the military is not interested in holding on to power for the sake of it, but will allow a civilian to run the state of affairs in a manner that benefits the country as a whole and not a few elites.

ECOWAS tested again

Meanwhile, the developments in Niger ignite the debate about whether ECOWAS really has what it takes to move in to restore democratically elected governments that have been overthrown through the barrel of a gun.

The sub-regional bloc threatened the coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea but those threats seem to be on paper.

It must be noted that aside from risking the lives of soldiers from the individual countries in the bloc in an attempt to oust a coup leader who has the full backing of that country’s military, there is also the bigger picture of funding.

This is a region plagued with poverty and economic challenges with most, if not all member states, under an International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme as part of measures to manage their huge debts and restore lost economic confidence.

The individual countries within the sub-region are also not well equipped with the kind of sophisticated military weapons and equipment needed to overpower the military of another country without needless bloodshed.

Lessons
Coups, of course, can never be hailed as an alternative to a democratically elected government. Coups, from history, have been proven to be counterproductive to any economic transformation, particularly in Africa, because the leaders of that coup eventually entrench themselves and become worse than the same democratically elected governments they overthrow. The leaders also abuse the rights of their fellow citizens and become power-drunk to an extent, as they stifle press freedom.

On the flip side, there is evidence all over about leaders who come to power democratically but engage in nepotism, embezzlement of state funds, cronyism, and mismanagement and blatantly refuse to be accountable to the same people who elected them.

The worst part is when the democratically elected governments attempt to change the same constitution that brought them to power to favour them at the expense of their political opponents.

For instance, it is common on the continent to see leaders change their country’s constitutions to extend their tenure in office from two terms to three against the will of the people.

These and more have been the major triggers of coups in the subregion and until that stops, it will be difficult for ECOWAS to maintain its position as one against coups.

For coups to stop, ECOWAS leaders must be bold enough to warn their colleagues about the consequences of their actions and inactions. While the coup-makers should not be allowed to have their way, the reverse is also true; so that in the end, the masses will be the beneficiaries and not a minute few.

For now, the world is watching to see whether ECOWAS, to whose good governance and democracy protocol Niger is a signatory, will really launch a military intervention, as it has threatened to do later in the weeks to come to first demonstrate its resolve or permanently buck down on that threat and opt for peaceful negotiations with the coup leaders.

There are also questions about whether ECOWAS will wait for sanctions to gradually do their work in ratcheting up pressure on the junta, particularly as there is significant political opposition to the military option in Nigeria, the present ECOWAS?chair, and some other ECOWAS states.

Way forward

For now, ECOWAS must continue to mount pressure on the coup leaders and make themselves unpredictable as to the next steps meant to restore democratic rule.

While it engages the West for military and financial support, there is the need for the regional bloc to find ways to rally the support of the people of Niger to reject the coup leaders, and, giving their ousted president another chance to prove himself.

The stakes are high but it will only take tact, transparency and frank negotiations to achieve the intended results.