Some have suggested human induced scientific errors and others are pointing to the manipulations of the devil (spiritual) and calling for divine intervention.  China and US are also suspecting biological attack against each other. What is not in doubt is, over the years, humanity has domesticated more animals and there is the emergence of infectious diseases. This phenomenon, according to experts, is due to demographic changes, human behaviour, microbial adaptation and climate change.

Whether all these theories and assumptions point to the truth or not, other perspectives (sequence of historic events) might give us a better explanation of what is happening, but to which we have not yet averted our minds. I would, therefore, like to share my thoughts  and make some useful deductions from available historical facts about the occurances of pandemics.

Probably this short piece might contribute to the world view on the coronavirus pandemic to redirect our negative approach and attitude towards the occurrence of COVID-19. My views are personal and open to further discussions, contributions or criticisms.

DEFINING "PANDEMIC" AND "EPIDEMIC"

In the first place, I think it is necessary to throw some light on the difference between the two words - "Pandemic" and "Epidemic" which many people use interchangeably to mean the same thing. Pandemic is defined as “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people” (Heath Kelly, 2011). The classical definition includesnothing about population immunity, virology or disease severity.

By this definition, pandemic occurs periodically or centenary, affecting all humanity at the same time, and claiming millions of lives across the world.

Epidemic, on the other hand is an annual or seasonal outbreak of a disease that occurs over a limited geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population at the same time, and spreading from person to person in a locality where the disease is not permanently prevalent. The World Health Organization (WHO) further specifies epidemic as occurring at a regional level or a community level.  We can therefore say that, the Coronavirus (COVID-19) started as an epidemic in China  and became a pandemic disease after crossing international boundaries.

The most recent outbreak of the Ebola virus, which has killed thousands of people, is still confined to West Africa. It could become pandemic if not properly controlled, but for now, it is still considered an epidemic.

INEVITABLE OCCURRENCE OF PANDEMICS
My curiosity to know more about the occurrence of the deadly COVID-19 brought up to me these questions,  "Has this kind of pandemic ever occurred in human history? And if yes, why it reoccurs and even out of control with all our high scientific knowledge?"  It only portrays the incapacity of mankind to understand or stop.

History adequately confirms this position when we trace human existence back to the first century and beyond. Take for example, the recordings in the Holy Bible (the Old Testament, about 2,700 years old). Reading through Psalm 91, one would realize that those prayers were not written without a cause.

It strongly backs the assertion that there were occurrences of global disasters and plagues which were beyond human comprehension and control.

So people living in the world at that time, like we are doing now, turned to God for His mercy. Also, reference can be made to the Plagues of Egypt, in the story of the book of Exodus and history continued to repeat itself.

Every century has recorded  a deadly pandemic. In our modern times, the world has suffered through other deadly pandemics worth mentioning here. Checking the records, the most brutal killers have always been cholera, tuberculosis, smallpox, coronavirus, HIV/AIDS and influenza. Outbreaks of these diseases across international borders, are properly defined as pandemic, especially smallpox, which throughout history, has killed between 300-500 million people in its 12,000 year existence.

Gleaning through historical records on epidemics and pandemics, I found out that other pandemic diseases that engulfed the entire world included these:
(a)  1317-1320 - the "BLACK DEATH", pandemic, killed an estimated 10 million people in the world.
(b) 1719-1720 - the "BUBUNIC" or Marseille plague with a death toll of an estimated 2 million people accros national borders.
(c) 1819-1820 - "ASIAN CHOLERA" outbreak which started in Asia killing an estimated 2 million people
(d) 1918-1920 - the "SPANISH FLU", popularly referred to as the Great Influenza Pandemic.  This influenza pandemic, in particular, presents a plausible worst-case scenario for today's COVID-19 outbreak. That pandemic, killed an estimated 39 million people, equivalent to 2% of the world's population at that time.

At this point, the probability that COVID-19 reaches anything close to previous outbreaks seems remote. But lessons we can learn from them in mortality, health care, macro-economics and finance can help us manage the effects of today's coronavirus pandemic.

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
Based on the similarity and the periodic re-occurrences  of all these pandemics as revealed by history, it is convincing to believe that, all happenings are in fulfillment of God's divine purpose for 'continuity and change - continuity of creation (world) and change in life of those living in it. I think that the purpose of bringing change is to reunite humanity with its natural world and prepare for future global challenges to be faced, This is what some people would refer to as evolutionary process.

In fact, history has proved that both religion and science are no longer at loggerheads but they now complement each other to find solutions to our problems. So long as we continue to interact with our natural environment for survival on earth, pandemic diseases are inevitable. As such, we have to see not only the destructive side of COVID-19 without averting our minds to positive intentions of the creator who is following his plans for continuity.

Following the sequence in these occurrences, I can only conclude that the creator of the universe knows for a purpose why, how and when it happens. Again if you read the Holy Book, God gave this instruction,  "come my people, enter your chambers and shut your doors behind you, hide yourselves  for a little while until the wrath is past" (Isaiah 26:20).

It suggests that every pandemic will come to pass and during the emergency period we need to quarantine ourselves until it is over.
Though we see it as deadly, the master-plan must be fulfilled.

One thing certain is that, these happenings prepare mankind for new solutions, new measures and new strategies to  manage future occurrences.  For instance, the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic outbreak suggests to the world the idea of "Social Distancing", " as the most effective methods to slow down COVID-19. It follows therefore that, the "lockdown" strategy introduced by the Chinese and adopted throughout the world (though unfamiliar and difficult situation in developing countries like Ghana) could also be an effective method in the future, if not now.

There is a great lesson in this for the entire humanity of the world and Africa in particular. At the end of COVID-19 humanity will continue to exist but without drastic changes in the domestic laws (e.g. healthcare, education, immigration, visa regime, local production and consumption, settlement planing,  urbanization, worshiping, funeral ceremonies, environmental pollution etc.) and in the  international sphere (e.g. trade and diplomatic relations, cooperation, humanitarian assistance, financial assistance etc.).

In conclusion I would say that, in history, pandemics have ravaged humanity but humanity continued to evolve. Hence, all hopes must not be lost (see, Psalm 23, Isaiah 41 and 54). From a historical point of view, COVID-19 as we witness today, is not the first of its kind in human existence. What matters is the precautionary measures, responses and the preparedness of our governments to face this challenge which should be based on using all our historical experiences, joint efforts and positive action (including scientific methods) as tools.

Any strategic approach we adopt must take special care to protect the vulnerable in our midst (e.g, categories of people in society that take a relatively high share of disease burden associated with emergencies). Such groups include, the elderly people, malnourished people,  economically disadvantaged people, people who are phisically challenged and poor people with very low income.

We shall surely overcome this coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) just as our predecesors have succeeded in controlling it from the time of Noah. Panic should amount to our preparedness. Stay protected, focused and follow instructions.