As the 2023/24 season progresses, it is certain the season will end in a higher deficit than previously expected. Much lower cocoa supplies from the leading producing countries have further extended the supply deficit.  Global production and grindings are projected to decline by -11.7% to 4.461 million tonnes and by -4.3% to 4.855 million tonnes.

Though at the start of the season, there was uncertainty regarding cocoa demand due to increasing cocoa prices, current available data reveal that cocoa grinding activities have so far been unrelenting in importing countries despite the record cocoa price rallies. However, grinding at origin which was earlier on viewed as an impetus to prop up demand, as producing countries engaged earnestly in value addition investments, has slowed down due to the lack of beans. 

Regarding cocoa trade, global exports of cocoa beans and semi-finished cocoa products, measured in bean equivalent, reached 2.36 million tonnes during October to December 2023, representing a decrease of almost 6% compared to 2.5 million tonnes recorded during the same period in the previous season. The decline in trade activities may be a consequence of the supply tightness from top producing countries in West Africa.

A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2024 is also presented.