MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2023 Real GDP Growth 2.0%
Average Real GDP Growth for 2023 2.8%
2024 Projected Real GDP Growth 2.8%
BoG Policy Rate 29.0%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 28.47%
Inflation for January, 2024 23.5%
End Period Inflation Target – 2024 15.0%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2023 2.5%
2024 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 3.0%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2023 567.3
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2023 66.4%
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed higher for the week on the back of price increases by 4 counters.
The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) gained 92.86 points (+2.92%) for the week to close at 3,278.04 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 4.72%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also gained 73.81 points (+3.84%) for the week to close at 1,996.71 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 5.00%.
Market capitalization decreased by 0.20% to close the week at GH¢74,606.11 million, from GH¢74,758.17 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 0.96%.
The week recorded a total of 3,866,526 shares valued at GH¢6,502,780.49 changing hands, compared with 733,867 shares, valued at GH¢871,017.85 in the preceding week.
MTNGH dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 89.09% and 75.52% of shares traded respectively.
The market ended the week with 4 growers and 1 laggard as indicated in the table below.
Price Movers for the Week
Equity Opening Price Closing Price Gain/Loss (%)
EGH 5.50 6.10 ?10.91%
UNIL 9.79 10.76 ?9.91%
SCB 17.53 19.25 ?9.81%
MTNGH 1.40 1.44 ?2.86%
FML 3.35 3.30 ?1.49%
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi continued its weekly depreciation run against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢12.5032/$, compared with GH¢12.3877/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.92% and 4.98% respectively. This compares with a loss of 22.13% a year ago.
The Cedi also fell against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢15.7731/£, compared with GH¢15.7058/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 0.43% and 4.06% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.83% a year ago.
The Cedi retreated against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢13.5230/€, compared with GH¢13.4031/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.89% and 2.93% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.67% a year ago.
The Cedi also depreciated against the Canadian Dollar at week end. It opened at GH¢9.1745/C$ but closed at GH¢9.2015/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 0.29% and 2.07% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.79% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change% YTD %
01-01-24 26-02-24 01-03-24
USD/GHS 11.8800 12.3877 12.5032 ?0.92 ?4.98
GBP/GHS 15.1334 15.7058 15.7731 ?0.43 ?4.06
EUR/GHS 13.1264 13.4031 13.5230 ?0.89 ?2.93
CAD/GHS 9.0112 9.1745 9.2015 ?0.29 ?2.07
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢4,940.25 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢6,970.08 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 27.00% p.a. from 27.28% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 29.50% p.a. from 29.75% p.a. last week. The 364-Day Bill settled at 30.10% p.a. from 30.30% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg (%) YTD
Chg (%)
01-01-24 27-02-24 01-03-24
91 Day TB 29.24 27.28 27.00 ?1.04 ?7.67
182 Day TB 31.88 29.75 29.50 ?0.85 ?7.49
364 Day TB 32.49 30.30 30.10 ?0.66 ?7.35
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary
Current Previous Change
Bid (GH¢' M) 4,940.25 6,970.08 ?29.12%
Issuance (GH¢' M) 4,963.25 6,970.08 ?28.79%
Target (GH¢' M) 4,137 6,268 ?34.00%
Maturity (GH¢' M) 1,990.48 3,979.57 ?49.98%
Target coverage ratio 1.20 1.11 na
Maturity coverage ratio 2.49 1.75 na
Bid / Cover ratio 1.00 1.00 na
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices settled at near four-month highs, on growing optimism about tighter global supplies as focus shifts to potential announcement by OPEC+ next week. Brent futures traded at US$83.55 a barrel, compared to US$81.62 at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 2.36% and 8.45% respectively.
Gold prices crept up close to breaking above key levels as overnight data spurred hopes that easing inflation will spur interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Gold settled at US$2,095.70, from US$2,049.40 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 2.26% and 1.15% respectively.
The price of Cocoa also grew for the week. Cocoa traded at US$6,826.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$6,562.00 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 4.02% and 62.68% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg% YTD %
01-01-24 26-02-24 01-03-24
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) 77.04 81.62 83.55 ?2.36 ?8.45
Gold (USD/t oz.) 2,071.80 2,049.40 2,095.70 ?2.26 ?1.15
Cocoa (USD/MT) 4,196.00 6,562.00 6,826.00 ?4.02 ?62.68
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Insider Trading: Insider trading involves trading in a public company's stock or other securities by someone with non-public, material information about the company. Insider transactions are legal if the insider makes a trade and reports it to the Securities and Exchange Commission, but insider trading is illegal when the material information is still non-public
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insidertrading.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email: etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email: moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 24 499 0069
Name: Julian Sapara-Grant
Email: jsgrant@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 821 2079
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
House No. 261
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 27 690 0011/ 55 989 9935
Fax : +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email : info@cidaninvestments.com
Website : www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.