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The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2022/23 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2021/22 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 3 - Volume XLIX - cocoa year 2022/23 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of August 2023.
The commentary of the Bulletin highlights that the 2022/23 season is contending with faltering production, growth in demand and relatively high prices.
The turnaround in grinding activities in origin countries has supported the growth in global grindings. Nevertheless, this is not enough to offset the negative grindings in the traditional consuming regions. An observation pointed out in the Bulletin is that there are more exports of semi-finished products from top producing countries to Europe, Southeast Asia and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries.
Cocoa prices, in turn, have garnered more support from the combination of the current cocoa supply and demand situation and are hovering at high levels. A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the April-June quarter of 2023 is also presented.
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Summary of forecasts and revised estimates |
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Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Year-on-year change |
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Revised |
Previous |
Revised |
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estimates |
forecasts a/ |
forecasts |
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(thousand tonnes) |
(Per cent) |
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World gross production |
4 826 |
4 980 |
4 938 |
+ 112 |
+ 2.3% |
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World grindings |
4 994 |
5 072 |
5 005 |
+ 11 |
+ 0.2% |
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Surplus/deficit b/ |
- 216 |
- 142 |
- 116 |
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End-of-season stocks |
1 843 |
1 632 |
1 727 |
- 116 |
- 6.3% |
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Stocks/Grindings ratio |
36.9% |
32.2% |
34.5% |
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Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLIX - No. 2 - Cocoa year 2022/23
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.
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Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2019/20 to 2021/22 and quarterly statistics for the period July-September 2021 to January-March 2023. Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided.
Caution should be exercised in the interpretation of the data in this issue of the Bulletin as they may be subject to revisions in subsequent Bulletins and reports from the Secretariat.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
