MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q2, 2021 GDP Growth |
3.9% |
Average GDP Growth for 2021 |
3.5% |
2021 Projected GDP Growth |
5.0% |
BoG Policy Rate |
14.50% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
12.63% |
Inflation for November, 2021 |
12.20% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2021 |
8.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2021 |
7.7% |
2021 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
9.5% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2021 |
341.8 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2021 |
77.8% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange inched up marginally for the week after posting declines in Five consecutive weeks. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) gained 32.06 points (+0.06%) to close at 2,811.81 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 44.82%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also advanced by 3.26 points (+0.16%) to close at 2,076.90 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 16.50%.
Market capitalization at the end of the week was GH¢63,902.96 million, representing a marginal increase of 0.03% from GH¢63,884.16 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD increase of 17.52%.
Trading activity declined for the week, relative to activity in the prior week. A total of 9,472,632 shares valued at GH¢12,236,276.71 changed hands for the week compared with 12,288,656 shares, valued at GH¢17,271,141.61 in the preceding week.
MTN dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 94.64% and 84.96% respectively of total shares traded.
The market closed the week with no 1 price gainer and no decliners as indicated on the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
Cal Bank PLC |
0.84 |
0.87 |
?3.57% |
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi continued its downward trend against the USD for the week as it traded at GH¢5.9540/$ on Friday, compared to GH¢5.9314/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.38% and 3.25% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 3.25% a year ago.
The Cedi also recorded a dip against the GBP for the reporting week as it traded at GH¢7.8983/£, compared with GH¢7.8428/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.70% and 0.30% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 5.14% a year ago.
The Cedi again lost grounds against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢6.7142/€, compared with GH¢6.7013/€ at week open, reflecting w/w depreciation and YTD appreciation of 0.19% and 5.21% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 11.23% a year ago.
Against the CAD, the Cedi apprecaited on the week as it opened at GH¢4.6635/C$ but closed at GH¢4.6435/C$, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.43% and 2.46% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 4.67% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change% |
YTD % |
|
01/01/21 |
13/12/20 |
17/12/20 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
5.7602 |
5.9314 |
5.9540 |
?0.38 |
?3.25 |
GBP/GHS |
7.8742 |
7.8428 |
7.8983 |
?0.70 |
?0.30 |
EUR/GHS |
7.0643 |
6.7013 |
6.7142 |
?0.19 |
?5.21 |
CAD/GHS |
4.5292 |
4.6635 |
4.6435 |
?0.43 |
?2.46 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢2,069.54 billion for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day, 364-Day Treasury Bills and the 5-year Fixed Rate Bond, compared to GH¢780.23 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day bill advanced by 4bps to close at 12.51% p.a compared to 12.47% p.a recorded last week. The 182-Day bill also advanced by 1bp to settle at 13.20% p.a. from 13.19% p.a last week whiles the 364-Day settled at 16.57% p.a from 16.36% p.a last week. The 5-Year FXR bond settled at 21.00% p.a.
The table and graph below highlight primary market yields at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01/01/21 |
10/12/21 |
17/12/21 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
14.10 |
12.47 |
12.51 |
0.28 |
-11.27 |
182 Day TB |
14.15 |
13.19 |
13.20 |
0.08 |
-6.68 |
364 Day TB |
16.96 |
16.36 |
16.57 |
1.25 |
-2.35 |
2-Yr FXR TN |
18.50 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
6.76 |
3-Yr Bond |
19.25 |
19.00 |
19.00 |
0.00 |
-1.30 |
5-Yr Bond |
19.85 |
18.80 |
21.00 |
11.70 |
5.79 |
6-Yr Bond |
19.50 |
18.80 |
18.80 |
0.00 |
-3.59 |
7-Yr Bond |
20.50 |
18.10 |
18.10 |
0.00 |
-11.71 |
10-Yr Bond |
19.80 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
-0.25 |
15-Yr Bond |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
20-Yr Bond |
20.20 |
20.20 |
20.20 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices dropped on Friday and were also down on the week as surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant raised concerns that new restrictions may hit fuel demand. Brent futures traded at US$73.52 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 2.17% and 41.93% respectively.
Gold prices settled at US$1,804.90 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.13% and 4.76% respectively after key central banks tightened their monetary policies at their respective meetings during the week. The Bank of England (BOE) for instance, hiked its interest rate to 0.25%, becoming the first Group of 7 (G7) central banks to hike interest rates since the onset of COVID-19.
Prices of Cocoa went up as the commodity traded at US$2,497.00 per tonne on Friday, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD losses of 1.42% and 4.07% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg % |
YTD % |
|
01/01/21 |
13/12/21 |
17/12/21 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
51.80 |
75.15 |
73.52 |
?2.17 |
?41.93 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
1,895.10 |
1,784.80 |
1,804.90 |
?1.13 |
?4.76 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
2,603.00 |
2,462.00 |
2,497.00 |
?1.42 |
?4.07 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Horizontal Merger: A horizontal merger is a merger or business consolidation that occurs between firms that operate in the same industry. Competition tends to be higher among companies operating in the same space, meaning synergies and potential gains in market share are much greater for merging firms.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/horizontalmerger.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email:etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Audrey Asiedua Wiafe
Email:aaudrey@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 57 840 2700
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email:moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 24 499 0069
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
Plot No. 169 Block 6
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 26171 7001/ 26 300 3917
Fax: +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email: info@cidaninvestmens.com
Website: www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.