The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2020/21 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2019/20 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 2 - Volume XLVII - Cocoa year 2020/21 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of May 2021.

A global record production of 5.024 million tonnes is forecast for the 2020/21 season. This is the first time that the 5 million mark has been broken. Record productions are expected in Côte d’Ivoire (1st world producer) and Ecuador (3rd world producer) following conducive weather conditions in cocoa producing areas. Despite an expected increase in world grindings, a production surplus of 165,000 tonnes is currently anticipated for the crop year under review.

In terms of share of total world production, Africa is expected to remain by far the largest cocoa producing region, accounting for 77% of world cocoa output. The shares of the Americas and Asia and Oceania are likely to be 17% and 6% respectively.

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep) 2019/20 2020/21 Year-on-year
change
Revised Previous Revised
estimates forecasts a/ forecasts
(thousand tonnes) (Per cent)

World gross production 4 728 4 843 5 024 + 296 + 6.30%
World grindings 4 671 4 693 4 809 + 138 + 3.00%
Surplus/deficit b/ + 10 + 102 + 165

End-of-season stocks 1 728 1 832 1 878 + 150 + 8.70%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 37.0% 39.0% 39.3%

Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVII - No. 1 - Cocoa year 2020/21
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings
Totals may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin also contains data for the past four years production and grindings of cocoa beans details by country. The main features of the global market are illustrated in colour charts, maps, and Sankey diagrams. In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on the crop and demand prospects in leading countries for the current season, a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2021 and the evolution of trade flow data estimated for major cocoa exporting and importing countries during the first quarter of the 2020/21 season.

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers crop year data from 2017/18 to 2019/20 and quarterly statistics for the period April-June 2019 to October-December 2020. Details of destination of exports and origin of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided. Historical statistics on cocoa trade, by country and by region, for the period 2011/12 to 2019/20 are presented for reference.

Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the new ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org

About ICCO

The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) is an inter-governmental organization established in 1973 under the auspices of the United Nations and operating within the framework of successive International Cocoa Agreements. The ICCO is headquartered in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

The Organization comprises 51 Member countries, of which 22 are cocoa exporting countries and 29 are cocoa importing countries. These Member countries together represent 92% of world cocoa exports and 80% of world cocoa imports.

The ICCO seeks to promote and support the economic, social, and environmental sustainability of the cocoa value chain, and in particular to improve the living conditions of cocoa farmers. The Organization acts as a center for knowledge and innovation in the World Cocoa Economy; as a platform for institutional cooperation to foster dialogue among its Member countries and between key stakeholders in the cocoa value chain; and as a source of technical assistance for its Member countries.