Weekly Highlights

• 91-Day T-Bill now at 12.81 percent, trimmed by 4 basis points; other short-dated treasury securities also moderated further.
• Accra Bourse ended mixed, with GSE Composite Index resuming uptrend but GSE Financial Stocks Index tumbled.
• Ghana cedi advanced against British pound but lost footing to both the US dollar and the Euro.
• US equity market closed positively ahead of the release of 1st quarter earnings.
• Brent crude oil dipped following plans by OPEC to raise supply between May and July.

Macroeconomic update
Key Ghana Economic Data

Indicator 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021
Target Actual
Inflation CPI (y-o-y %) 9.40 7.90 10.40 8.00 9.90
Inflation PPI (y-o-y %) 4.40 13.00 7.00 n/a 10.3
Monetary Policy Rate (%) 17.0 16.00 14.50 n/a 14.50
GDP Growth (y-o-y %) 6.3 6.5 0.9* 5.00 n/a
Budget Deficit (% of GDP 3.8 4.5Sep 11.7 9.50 n/a
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.6 63.00 68.3 n/a n/a
Fx. Reserves (M. Cover) 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.00 n/a
Source: BOG; MOFEP; GSS. * represents provisional estimate ** data yet to be released by MoF

Government of Ghana Treasury Securities
Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds (%)
Date 91-Day 182-day 364-day 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
Apr 12 – 16 12.81 13.61 16.44 17.60 17.70 18.30
Apr 05 – 09 12.85 13.62 16.57 17.60 17.70 18.30
Mar29–Apr02 12.87 13.65 16.57 17.60 17.70 18.30
2021 Yr. Open 14.09 14.12 17.00 18.50 19.25 19.85
NB: The above are the annual yields on Government of Ghana Treasury Securities.

Yields on the Government of Ghana treasury securities further moderated at the week’s auction. The yield on the 91-Day T-Bill dipped by 4 basis points to settle at 12.81 percent. The 182-Day T-Bill, which had a yield of 13.62 percent, moderated by a basis point to settle at 13.61 percent. That on the 364-Day T-Bill also inched down by 13 basis points to settle at 16.44 percent. Interest rates on the Government of Ghana Treasury Notes and Bonds were, however, unaltered.

Results of Auction held on 9th April, 2021

Bill Bids Tendered GHS (Million) Bids Accepted GHS (Million) Interest Rate (%)
91-Day T-Bill 850.66 850.66 12.8098
182-Day T-Bill 153.36 153.45 13.6067
3-Year Bond 166.56 166.56 16.4456

At the close of the week’s auction, the Government accepted GHS1,170.67 million bids out of the GHS1,170.88 tendered by investors. This missed the week’s target of GHS1,540.00 million, with the 91-Day T-Bill being the most accepted bid by the Government. It constituted 72.66 percent of the total bids raised. At the upcoming auction, an amount of GHS950.00 million is scheduled to be raised from the sale of the 91-Day and 182-Day T-Bills.

The term structure of the Government of Ghana treasury securities sustained its normality, following the comparative higher returns on the long-dated treasury securities over the short-dated counterpart. This observation is in sync with policy directions of the Central Bank to encourage longer term investment by investors as this reduce the frequency of servicing maturing bills by the Government. The persisting moderation of interest rates in recent times steams from decreasing uncertainties at both the domestic and global fronts, which has spurred risk taking sentiment at the expense of investing in safe-haven assets. The rate of moderation is likely to aid in the cut of the policy rate on condition that inflation outturn for March improves, coupled with other macroeconomic variables such as external trade.

Ghana Stock Exchange

Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Indices (YTD %)
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GSE-CI 52.73 -0.29 -12.25 -13.98 18.53
GSE-FSI 49.51 -6.79 -6.23 -11.73 2.94

Trading activities slowly picked up after the festive season, with MTN Ghana Ltd dominating most of the week’s trading activities in terms of volume. The Bourse witnessed a mixed closure with the Benchmark Composite Index rebounding on the back of price uplift in the telecommunication giant – Scancom Ghana Ltd (MTNGH). The GSE Composite Index thus finished with a weekly rise of 3.98 percent to an index level of 2,301.35 points, corresponding to a year-to-date return of 18.53 percent. The GSE Financial Stocks Index, however, dwindled on account of selling pressures within Ecobank Ghana Ltd which dragged the index down by 0.58 percent to 1,835.25 points. The year-to-date return of the Index thus reduced to 2.94 percent.

GSE Market Indicators
Wk. Open Wk. End Change (%)
Total Volume Traded (M) 1.48 3.72 150.93
Total Value Traded (GHS M) 1.62 3.62 122.84
Market Cap (GHS M) 57,162.18 58,083.97 1.61

Market outturn improved slightly over the previous week’s performance. A total volume of 3.72 million shares worth GHS3.62 million exchanged hands in thirteen stocks. This represents an increment of 150.93 percent over the previous performance in terms of volume of shares traded. MTN Ghana Ltd led the activity chart as it accounted for 87.64 percent of the overall traded volume. The market ended with its capitalization upping by 1.61 percent to GHS58,083.97 million from a previous week’s outturn of GHS57,162.18 million.

Stock Price Movements

At the pairing of the week’s opening and closing prices, a total of four equites appeared on the mover’s chart, three advancers and a laggard. MTN Ghana Ltd gained 8 pesewas to close the week’s trade at 93 pesewas per share. Standard Chartered Bank Ltd and Enterprise Group Ltd also gained a pesewa each to trade at GHS18.16 and GHS1.45 per share, respectively.

Stock Price Movers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
MTNGH 0.64 0.85 0.93 0.08 45.31
SCB 16.31 18.15 18.16 0.01 11.34
EGL 1.40 1.44 1.45 0.01 3.57

On the flipside, Ecobank Ghana Ltd went down by 20 pesewas to trade at GHS7.00 per share.

Stock Price Movers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
EGH 7.20 7.20 7.00 -0.20 -2.78

Currency Market
Currency Buying Selling Currency Buying Selling
USD 5.7265 5.7323 CAD 4.5614 4.5657
GBP 7.8620 7.8704 CFA 96.2802 96.3750
EUR 6.8063 6.8130 JPY 0.0522 0.0523
AUD 4.3673 4.3728 ZAR 0.3922 0.3926
NGN 71.0615 71.3862 CNY 0.8738 0.8746
Source: Bank of Ghana 09.04.2021

The interbank currency market ended with the local currency depreciating against the US dollar and the Euro but advanced against the British Pound. The US dollar traded defensively against major peers on the international currency market, posting its worst weekly performance since the beginning of the year. This was on account of dovish sentiment expressed by the US Fed, as they signalled keeping its monetary policy and slowed down the rollout of the stimulus packages due to consistent divergence of employment and inflation rates from the bank’s target. Rising unemployment rate as jobless claims moved to 744,000 for the week ended April 3, 2021 as against a forecast of 694,000 and a previous week’s figure of 728,000. Also, consumer price index readings appear lower than the 2.4 percent target by the Bank. An inflation reading of 1.7 percent was recorded in February 2021. The US dollar appreciated by 0.01 percent against the Ghana cedi at a selling price of GHS5.73 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi to the dollar thus trimmed to 0.54 percent.

The British pound softened as investors undertook series of profit taking activities. The British pound which posted impressive performance in the 1st quarter of 2021 by 5 percent appreciation, coupled with efforts by the Government to massively rollout the vaccination, had investors taking advantage of these development to sell portions of their net-holdings. The British pound thus depreciated by 0.09 percent against the Cedi at a reduced selling price of GHS7.87 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi to the pound thus lowered to 0.11 percent.

The Euro jumped to its highest in two-weeks, on account of recently adopted measures by the bloc to curtail the spread of the new variants of the COVID-19 pandemic. The downtrend in new infections within the bloc have shown some resilience and this has eased pressure on the single currency. This, coupled with strong data from the bloc as its manufacturing sector grew at its strongest pace in 2-years, with a PMI of 62.5 points in March from a previous rate of 57.9 points, supported the Euro. The Euro thus finished the week’s trade with 1.44 percent appreciation against the cedi at as its selling price rose to GHS6.81 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus reduced to 3.73 percent.

International Market

Stock Indices
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change (%) YTD (%)
S&P 500 Index 4,019.87 4,128.80 2.71 9.92
DJIA 33,153.21 33,800.60 1.95 10.44
FTSE 100 6,737.30 6,915.75 2.65 7.05
NIKKEI 225 29,388.87 29,768.06 1.29 8.47
FTSE/JSEAllShare 67,236.31 67,191.27 -0.07 13.10
NSE All Share 38,930.68 38,866.39 -0.17 -3.49
Nairobi All Share 160.68 158.59 -1.30 4.26

Wallstreet finished higher as investors were highly expectants of the yet-to-be released 1st quarter earnings of listed stocks. The expectation that stocks within the Healthcare Industry and Consumer Services will post sterling earnings, buoyed risk sentiment. The S&P 500 thus recorded a week-on-week gain of 2.71 percent to settle at 4,128.80 per share. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also ended with 1.95 percent weekly gain to settle at 33,800.60 points.

The London Stocks Exchange saw its biggest weekly gain since the beginning of the year as risk taking sentiment improved significantly on account of the British pound’s depreciation. The expectation of higher earnings by listed firms for the 1st quarter of 2021 also supported the Bourse gains. The FTSE 100 thus ended with a weekly gain of 2.65 percent to settle at 6,915.75 points.

The Japanese Stock Exchange ended on a positive note, following improved demand for shares within the Paper & Pulp, Railway & Bus and Real Estate sectors. The Nikkei 225 thus advanced by 1.29 percent as it settled at 29,768.06 points.

On the African equity market, the Johannesburg All Shares Index posted a weekly decline of 0.07 percent to settle at 67,191.27 points. The Nigerian All Shares Index went down by 0.17 percent to settle at 38,866.39 points. The Nairobi All Share Index, similarly, recorded a weekly decline of 1.30 percent to settle at 158.59 points.

Commodities
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change
(%) YTD (%)
Crude Oil $/barrel 64.86 62.95 -2.94 21.53
Gold $/ounce 1,726.50 1,743.30 0.97 -8.01
Cocoa$/metric tonne 2,392.00 2,354.00 -1.59 -9.57
Coffee $/pound 1.216 1.2725 4.65 -0.78
Source:www.bloomberg.com, & www.investing.com -

Brent crude oil lowered its value on the international commodities market as the demand side of the market appears threatened by renewed lockdown measures to curb rising COVID-19 cases in some part of the world, amidst challenges with vaccinations. Threats of over supply of the energy commodity following the decision by OPEC and its allies to raise the production cut by 2 million barrels per day between May and July negatively affected the price of the energy commodity. Brent crude oil thus went down by $1.91 to trade at $62.95 per barrel.

Gold surged on account of the dovish commentary by the US Fed – Jerome Powell on decision by the bank to half stimulus rollouts until the labour market and inflation converges to the bank’s target. This sparked a drift from demand of the US dollar, recording its worst depreciation in three months, and Government Bonds as interest rates dwindled for the demand of the yellow metal. Gold thus added $16.80 to trade at $1,743.30 per ounce.

Coffee rose nearly to a week’s high on the international commodities market following report suggesting a potential drop in overall production of the soft crop for the 2021/22 season. The projection of 7.5 million bags shortfall for the 2121/22 crop cycle on account of dry conditions in Brazil increased the price per unit pound of the crop. Coffee thus added 6 cents to trade at $1.27 per pound.

Cocoa posted another weekly decline as supply factors continue to weigh on the demand side of the market. Bumper harvest in West Africa following favourable climatic readings in Ivory Coast and Ghana undercuts cocoa prices as demand for chocolate dwindles on account of the COVID-19 pandemic. Cocoa thus shed $38.00 to settle at $2,354.00 per metric tonne, the lowest reading in four months.

Note: The data in this publication is Friday on Friday (w/w)