MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

Q1’ 2020 GDP 4.9%
BoG Policy Rate – May 2020 14.50%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 13.70%
Inflation for May, 2020 11.3%
End Period Inflation Target - 2020 8.0%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Mar, 2020 3.4%
2020 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 7.8%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Mar, 2020 236.1
Debt to GDP Ratio – Mar, 2020 59.3%

STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The stock market closed weaker in the review week on the back of losses in 4 tickers. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) shed 14.88 points (0.79%) to close at 1,872.77 points, compared to 1,887.65 points at the close of the previous week. This translates into a year-to-date (YTD) loss of 17.03%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index also shed 5.60 points to close the week at 1,719.73 points, translating into YTD loss of 14.85%.

Market capitalization increased by 0.03% for the week from GH¢52,823.34 million at the close of the previous week to GH¢52,837.03 million at the close of the week. This represents YTD decline of 6.96%.
There was increased activity on the market compared with that of the preceding week. A total of 6,580,784 shares, valued at GH¢3,950,670.76 changed hands for the week, compared with 359,324 shares valued at GH¢218,704.97 recorded in the preceding week. MTNGH dominated both volume and value of shares traded for the week. MTNGH accounted for 93.14% (6,129,620 shares) of total volume of shares traded and 88.44% (GH¢3,494,162.40) of total value of shares traded for the week.
The market closed on Friday with four laggards and two gainers. Cal Bank Plc. led the laggards for the week after closing trading at GH¢0.65 from GH¢0.71 (-8.45%) at week open. Intravenous Infusions Limited meanwhile led the gainers for the week after closing at GH¢0.04 from GH¢0.03 (+33.33%) at week open.
Thirty-four (34) counters remained flat at the closing bell on Friday.
The graphs and table below highlight activity on the market during the week.

Best 5 &Worst 5 Performing Stocks
Best Performing Stocks: YTD Return
SIC Insurance Company Ltd. 25.00%
Camelot Ghana Ltd. 22.22%
Aluworks Limited 10.00%
Dannex Ayrton Starwin Plc. 2.56%
SCB Preference Share 1.16%

Worst Performing Stocks:
Fan Milk Ltd. -57.52%
GCB Bank Ltd. -33.33%
Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. -28.99%
Republic Bank (Ghana) Ltd. -28.57%
Cal Bank Ltd -26.97%

CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi weakened against the USD on the week. It traded at GH¢5.6720/$ on Friday, compared with GH¢5.6682/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.07% and 2.44% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 8.27% a year ago.
The Cedi also weakened against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢6.4179/€, compared with GH¢6.3723/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.71% and 3.22% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 6.75% a year ago.
The Cedi further weakened against the GBP on the week. It traded at GH¢7.1768/£, compared with GH¢7.0663/£ at week open, reflecting w/w depreciation and YTD appreciation of 1.54% and 1.95% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 6.49% a year ago.
The Cedi however strengthened against the CAD on the week. It opened trading at GH¢4.1748/C$ but closed at GH¢4.1733/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.04% and 2.27% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 12.18% a year ago.

Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
01/01/20 06/07/20 10/07/20
USD/GHS 5.5337 5.6682 5.6720 -0.07 -2.44
GBP/GHS 7.3164 7.0663 7.1768 -1.54 1.95
EUR/GHS 6.2114 6.3723 6.4179 -0.71 -3.22
CAD/GHS 4.2681 4.1748 4.1733 0.04 2.27
Source: Bank of Ghana

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a total of GH¢933.18 million in the week under review across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢534.16 million raised in the previous week.
The 91–Day and 364-Day Bills added 2bps and 3bps to settle at 13.99% and 16.92% respectively. The 182-Day Treasury Bill on the contrary, shed 7bps to settle at 14.02%.
Please see below for more details.

Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % Chg % YTD %
01/01/20 03/07/20 10/07/20
91 Day TB 14.70 13.97 13.99 0.12 -4.81
182 Day TB 15.15 14.09 14.02 -0.48 -7.44
364 Day TB 17.90 16.89 16.92 0.13 -5.50
2-Yr FXR TN 20.95 18.75 18.75 0.00 -10.50
3-Yr Bond 19.7 18.85 18.85 0.00 -4.31
5-Yr Bond 19.50 19.25 19.25 0.00 -1.28
6-Yr Bond 21.00 21.00 21.00 0.00 0.00
7-Yr Bond 16.25 16.25 16.25 0.00 0.00
10-Yr Bond 19.8 19.8 19.8 0.00 0.00
15-Yr Bond 19.75 19.75 19.75 0.00 0.00
20-Yr Bond 20.2 20.2 20.2 0.00 0.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

COMMODITY MARKET
Gold prices closed higher for the week supported by the increasing new wave of infections of CoVid-19 globally. Gold futures settled at US$1,801.90 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 0.80% and 18.47% respectively.
Oil prices inched up for the week supported by an upward forecast in global oil demand by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Brent futures traded at US$43.24 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.10% and 34.48% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa closed higher for the week. Cocoa futures settled at US$2,278.00 per tonne, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 2.89% and 10.31% respectively.

International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
01/01/20 06/07/20 10/07/20
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl)
66.00 42.77 43.24
1.10
-34.48
Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,520.95 1,787.60 1,801.90
0.80
18.47
Cocoa (USD/MT)
2,540.00 2,214.00 2,278.00
2.89
-10.31
Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Fair Market Value: The price that an interested but not desperate buyer would be willing to pay and an interested but not desperate seller would be willing to accept on the open market assuming a reasonable period of time for an agreement to arise.
Source: www.investorwords.com

ABOUT CIDAN

CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).

Website: www.cidaninvestments.com

Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.