MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

 

2019 GDP	6.2%
Projected GDP for 2019	7.1%
BoG Policy Rate – September 2019	16.0%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate	15.2%
Inflation for September, 2019	7.6%
End Period Inflation Target - 2019	8.0%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – July, 2019	3.9%
2019 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP)	4.5%
Public Debt (billion GH¢)  – July, 2019	205.6
Debt to GDP Ratio – July, 2019	59.4%

 

STOCK MARKET REVIEW

The stock market indices declined for the week as losses in 3 counters eclipsed gains in 3 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) moderated by 5.76 points (-0.27%) to close at 2,149.70 points, compared to 2,155.46 points at the previous week’s close. This translates into a year-to-date (YTD) loss of 16.43%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index also shed 10.71 points (-0.59%) to close the week at 1,806.73 points, representing YTD loss of 16.11%.

Market capitalization eased by 0.11% for the week from GH¢55,578.25 million at the close of the preceding week to GH¢55,519.07 million. This represents YTD decline of 9.19%.   

There was significant improved activity on the market compared with the preceding week. 8,831,550 shares, valued at GH¢7,153,436.70 changed hands for the week, compared with total volume and value of 8,570,197 and GH¢7,557,282.05 recorded in the preceding week respectively. CAL dominated both volume and value of shares traded for the week. CAL accounted for 75.49% (6,667,223 shares) of total volume of shares traded and 60.11% (GH¢4,300,036.32) of total value of shares traded.

The market closed on Friday with three laggards and three advancers for the week. Standard Chartered Bank led the laggards with a 6.25% decline in price, closing at GH¢15.00 per share. CAL Bank Ltd meanwhile led the advancers with a 14.29% increase in price. CAL’s equity price closed at GH¢0.80 per share from GH¢0.70 per share at week open. Twenty-seven (27) counters remained flat at the closing bell on Friday.

The graphs and table below highlight activity on the market during the week.

Best 5 & Worst 5 Performing Stocks
Best Performing Stocks:	YTD Return
Trust Bank Gambia Ltd	73.91%
Starwin Products Ltd.	50.00%
Aluworks Limited	25.00%
Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd.	14.29%
GCB Bank Ltd.	11.72%
Worst Performing Stocks:
Ecobank Transnational Inc.	-46.67%
State Insurance Company	-44.44%
Ghana Oil Company Ltd	-45.51%
Fan Milk Ltd	-43.38%
Benson Oil Palm Plantation	-41.85%

CURRENCY MARKET

The Cedi slid against the USD for the review week. It traded at GH¢5.3372/$ on Friday, compared with GH¢5.3322/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.09% and 9.69% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 7.80% a year ago.

The Cedi also weakened against the Euro on the week. It traded at GH¢5.9618/€, compared with GH¢5.9132/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.81% and 7.53% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 3.16% a year ago.

The Cedi again weakened against the GBP on the week. It traded at GH¢6.9138/£, compared with GH¢6.8434/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.02% and 10.74% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 4.04% a year ago.

The Cedi conversely strengthened against the CAD for the week. It opened at GH¢4.0822/C$ but closed at GH¢4.0580/C$, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.60% and 12.87% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 3.78% a year ago.

Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair	Year Open	Week Open	Week Close	Change %	YTD %
	01-01-19	28-10-19	01-11-19
USD/GHS	4.8200	5.3322	5.3372	-0.09	-9.69
GBP/GHS	6.1711	6.8434	6.9138	-1.02	-10.74
EUR/GHS	5.5131	5.9132	5.9618	-0.81	-7.53
CAD/GHS	3.5359	4.0822	4.0580	0.60	-12.87

Source: Bank of Ghana

 

 

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Government raised a total of GH¢518.27 million in the review week through the issuance of the 91-day and the 182-day treasury papers. This compares with GH¢1,158.37 million raised in the previous week.

The 91–day Treasury paper stayed flat at 14.69% whilst the 182–day Treasury bill trimmed off 1bp to settle at 15.13%.

Please see below for more details.

Security	Year Open	Previous Yield %	Current Yield %	Chg     %	YTD   %
	01-01-19	25-10-19	01-11-19
91 day TB	14.59	14.69	14.69	0.01	0.64
182 day TB	15.03	15.14	15.13	-0.04	0.71
364 day TB	15.50	17.90	17.90	0.00	15.51
2-Yr FXR TN	19.5	19.00	19.00	0.00	-2.56
3-Yr Bond	19.5	19.7	19.7	0.00	1.03
5-Yr Bond	16.50	19.50	19.50	0.00	18.18
6-Yr Bond	N/A	21.00	21.00	0.00	0.00
7-Yr Bond	16.25	16.25	16.25	0.00	0.00
10-Yr Bond	17.5	19.8	19.8	0.00	13.14
15-Yr Bond	19.75	19.75	19.75	0.00	0.00
20-Yr Bond	N/A	20.2	20.2	0.00	0.00

Source: Bank of Ghana

 

COMMODITY MARKET

Gold prices posted gains for the third straight week following 25bps interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank on Wednesday and a weakened dollar. Gold futures for January delivery added 0.41% for the week to settle at US$1,511.40 per ounce on Friday, reflecting YTD gain of 17.96%.

Oil prices softened for the week despite significant gains posted on Friday ass data indicates showed a huge U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended, October 25. Brent futures traded at US$61.69 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 0.53% and 14.67% respectively.

Cocoa futures meanwhile settled at US$2,478.00 per tonne on Friday, reflecting gains of 1.77% and 2.57% respectively for the year.

International Commodity Prices

Commodities	Year Open	Week Open	Week Close	Chg %	YTD %
	01-01-19	28-10-19	01-11-19
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl)	53.8	62.02	61.69	-0.53	14.67
Gold (USD/t oz.)	1,281.30	1,505.30	1,511.40	0.41	17.96
Cocoa (USD/MT)	2,416.00	2,435.00	2,478.00	1.77	2.57

Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK

Except-for Opinion: An auditor's opinion in which he/she is unable to audit certain of the company's operations due to restrictions imposed by management or other conditions beyond the auditor's control.

Source:www.investorwords.com

ABOUT CIDAN

CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).

Website: www.cidaninvestments.com

Disclaimer

The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.